US-Russian Nuclear Pact About to Expire02/04 06:21

   The last remaining nuclear arms pact between Russia and the United States is 
set to expire Thursday, removing any caps on the two largest atomic arsenals 
for the first time in more than a half-century.

   (AP) -- The last remaining nuclear arms pact between Russia and the United 
States is set to expire Thursday, removing any caps on the two largest atomic 
arsenals for the first time in more than a half-century.

   The termination of the New START Treaty would set the stage for what many 
fear could be an unconstrained nuclear arms race.

   Russian President Vladimir Putin declared readiness to stick to the treaty's 
limits for another year if Washington follows suit, but President Donald Trump 
has been noncommittal about extending it.

   Trump has repeatedly indicated he would like to keep limits on nuclear 
weapons and involve China in arms control talks, a White House official who was 
not authorized to talk publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity said 
Monday. Trump will make a decision on nuclear arms control "on his own 
timeline," the official said.

   Beijing has balked at any restrictions on its smaller but growing nuclear 
arsenal.

   Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday it would be a "more dangerous" 
world without limits on U.S. and Russian nuclear stockpiles.

   Arms control advocates long have voiced concern about the expiration of New 
START, warning it could lead to a new Russia-U.S. arms race, foment global 
instability and increase the risk of nuclear conflict.

   Failure to agree on keeping the pact's limits will likely encourage a bigger 
deployment, said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control 
Association in Washington.

   "We're at the point now where the two sides could, with the expiration of 
this treaty, for the first time in about 35 years, increase the number of 
nuclear weapons that are deployed on each side," Kimball told The Associated 
Press. "And this would open up the possibility of an unconstrained, dangerous 
three-way arms race, not just between the U.S. and Russia, but also involving 
China, which is also increasing its smaller but still deadly nuclear arsenal."

   Kingston Reif of the RAND Corporation, a former U.S. deputy assistant 
secretary of defense, also warned during an online discussion that "in the 
absence of the predictability of the treaty, each side could be incentivized to 
plan for the worst or to increase their deployed arsenals to show toughness and 
resolve, or to search for negotiating leverage."

   Putin repeatedly has brandished Russia's nuclear might since sending troops 
into Ukraine in February 2022, warning Moscow was prepared to use "all means" 
to protect its security interests. In 2024, he signed a revised nuclear 
doctrine lowering the threshold for nuclear weapons use.

   Signed in 2010

   New START, signed in 2010 by U.S. President Barack Obama and his Russian 
counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev, restricted each side to no more than 1,550 
nuclear warheads on no more than 700 missiles and bombers -- deployed and ready 
for use. It was originally supposed to expire in 2021 but was extended for five 
more years.

   The pact envisioned sweeping on-site inspections to verify compliance, 
although they stopped in 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic and never 
resumed.

   In February 2023, Putin suspended Moscow's participation, saying Russia 
couldn't allow U.S. inspections of its nuclear sites at a time when Washington 
and its NATO allies have openly declared Moscow's defeat in Ukraine as their 
goal. At the same time, the Kremlin emphasized it wasn't withdrawing from the 
pact altogether, pledging to respect its caps on nuclear weapons.

   In offering in September to abide by New START's limits for a year to buy 
time for both sides to negotiate a successor agreement, Putin said the pact's 
expiration would be destabilizing and could fuel nuclear proliferation.

   Rose Gottemoeller, the chief U.S. negotiator for pact and a former NATO 
deputy secretary-general, said extending it would have served U.S. interests. 
"A one-year extension of New START limits would not prejudice any of the vital 
steps that the United States is taking to respond to the Chinese nuclear 
buildup," she told an online discussion last month.

   Previous pacts

   New START followed a long succession of U.S.-Russian nuclear arms reduction 
pacts, starting with SALT I in 1972 signed by U.S. President Richard Nixon and 
Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev -- the first attempt to limit their arsenals.

   The 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty restricted the countries' missile 
defense systems until President George W. Bush took the U.S. out of the pact in 
2001 despite Moscow's warnings. The Kremlin has described Washington's efforts 
to build a missile shield as a major threat, arguing it would erode Russia's 
nuclear deterrent by giving the U.S. the capability to shoot down its 
intercontinental ballistic missiles.

   As a response to the U.S. missile shield, Putin ordered the development of 
the Burevestnik nuclear-tipped and nuclear-powered cruise missile and the 
Poseidon nuclear-armed and nuclear-powered underwater drone. Russia said last 
year it successfully tested the Poseidon and the Burevestnik and was preparing 
their deployment.

   Also terminated in 2019 was the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty, 
which was signed in 1987 and banned land-based missiles with a range between 
500-5,500 kilometers (310-3,400 miles). Those missiles were seen as 
particularly destabilizing because of their short flight time to their targets, 
leaving only minutes to decide on a retaliatory strike and increasing the 
threat of a nuclear war on a false warning.

   In November 2024 and again last month, Russia attacked Ukraine with a 
conventional version of its new Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile. 
Moscow says it has a range of up to 5,000 kilometers (3,100 miles), capable of 
reaching any European target, with either nuclear or conventional warheads.

   Trump's 'Golden Dome'

   Without agreements limiting nuclear arsenals, Russia "will promptly and 
firmly fend off any new threats to our security," said Medvedev, who had signed 
the New START treaty and is now deputy head of Putin's Security Council.

   "If we are not heard, we act proportionately seeking to restore parity," he 
said in recent remarks.

   Medvedev specifically mentioned Trump's proposed Golden Dome missile defense 
system among potentially destabilizing moves, emphasizing a close link between 
offensive and defensive strategic weapons.

   Trump's plan has worried Russia and China, Kimball said.

   "They're likely going to respond to Golden Dome by building up the number of 
offensive weapons they have to overwhelm the system and make sure that they 
have the potential to retaliate with nuclear weapons," he said, adding that 
offensive capabilities can be built faster and cheaper than defensive ones.

   Trump's October statement about U.S. intentions to resume nuclear tests for 
the first time since 1992 also troubled the Kremlin, which last conducted a 
test in 1990 when the USSR still existed. Putin said Russia will respond in 
kind if the U.S. resumes tests, which are banned by a global treaty that Moscow 
and Washington signed.

   U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in November that such tests would 
not include nuclear explosions.

   Kimball said a U.S. resumption of tests "would blow a massive hole in the 
global system to reduce nuclear risk," prompting Russia to respond in kind and 
tempting others, including China and India, to follow suit.

   The world was heading toward accelerated strategic competition, he said, 
with more spending and increasingly unstable relations involving the U.S., 
Russia, and China on nuclear matters.

   "This marks a potential turning point into a much more dangerous period of 
global nuclear competition, the likes of which we've not seen in our 
lifetimes," Kimball added.