2/11/21

the February crop report came out on the 9th and the USDA did not adjust the corn carryout as much as what the traders were anticipating.  The traders were looking for a 200 million bushels decline but only got 50.   They did drop the soybean carryout to 120 million bushels, which was in line with what the traders were looking for.  Most still believe more drops are coming.  Expect a volatile market going forward with plenty of ups and downs, but prices should remain firm...at least until China decides they can buy grain cheaper from another place or the USDA makes upward revisions to the stocks report due to high prices curbing demand, but that doesn't seem to be the case so far.  Heard the other day that China actually cancelled south american purchases and bought more US beans...that is definitely a change of pace but it can go the other way just as fast.  South American harvest is starting which should slow down our export pace here on the front end.  Overall demand for corn and beans still seems to be going along pretty good, but high prices will eventually cure high prices.  There will be 2 major reports coming in March...the normal March crop report which i believe comes out March 12th and then the quarterly stocks and acres intention report that comes out on March 31.  I am sure that these prices will equate into a higher acre number than we have seen for a while. 

Crop Insurance:  We are in the month of February, which means the spring guarantee for crop insurance is being calculated as I type.  For corn, they use the average of the December futures during the month of February and for beans the average of the November futures.  This should be the highest spring price we have seen since 2013.  Once we hit October, it will take those same averages and that will be your harvest price and you get to use whichever one is higher.  MFA crop insurance has other tools available which allows you to add additional months.  March 15th is fast approaching to sign up for crop insurance or to make any changes to your policies...Please call Nathan if you have any questions 

Livestock:  As temps start to drop your livetock nutrient needs will increase dramatically.  For instance, if it is 20 degrees outside and your cow are dry, their energy needs are 100%, but if they are wet and cold, their nutrient needs jump to 180%.  Please keep this in mind as the weather fluctuates like it does here in Missouri.  The hay that your livestock is eating may not be enough as Mo weather kicks in.  Calving season will be here before we know it as well, please call your local MFA and ask about Ricochet mineral.  It is designed to increase colostrum quality as well as helping to get that cow bred back early for the next calving season. 

Thank you for your business! 

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